28 September 2011

A recent survey for Conservatives of opinion in some marginal constituencies, including two in Cornwall, has thrown up a mean average swing of three percent from Liberal Democrats to Conservatives in seats held by the latter where the Libdems are second in votes.

The two Cornwall seats are Camborne-and-Redruth and Truro-and-Falmouth. The results for these two seats are not given separately in the public scores but, assuming they fit the pattern, this means that the Tories should win them comfortably next time. However, bear in mind the next election is not due until 2015 and that’s a long way off.

Electoral calculus has the Tories winning these two even more clearly. In fact it shows them winning all the Cornwall seats. Of course we are likely to have new boundaries in 2015.

It will be interesting to compare these 2011 findings with the actual results of the next general election.